Tampa Bay Wins In Texas

The 2013 MLB regular season ended last night when Tampa Bay won in Texas. The game was to determine the second wild card team that will play the Cleveland Indians on Wednesday in Cleveland for the wild card that then plays in the Division Series. Tampa Bay and Texas were tied after the 162nd game necessitating the 163rd game.

The game was determined by Cy Young winner David Price’s superb pitching in this complete game victory. Tampa Bay hitting was timely, as well, with Evan Longoria hitting a two run homerun, and baserunning superior as Centerfielder Fuld stole a run by stealing third while the pitcher was still holding the ball! Fuld was on second when he noticed that the pitcher took a very wide stance while getting the sign from the catcher and would have to step, back, off the rubber, further extending his stance, and putting him into a very awkward position to throw to third. The throw was errant and Fuld got up from his slide and scored a very important fifth run. It was my favorite play of the game.

Texas had the misfortune of having its balls hit to fielders or fall just short of the outfield fence. It is a game of inches, by the way. It benefited from a missed call on an outfield play where its centerfielder trapped a ball that was called an out by the umpire, saving a run. Next year that play will be reviewed by the umpires.

The playoffs start today in Pittsburgh with the Pirates playing the Reds, then the Rays play the Indians in Cleveland Wednesday. This will be a fun run and I look forward to it.

For the full Playoff Schedule look here.

Ron Gardenhire Returns Victorious

Twins manager, Ron Gardenhire, will return with a two year contract along with all of his coaches. This means Gardenhire has prevailed in his discussions with the Twins. I assume he has obtained promises that the Twins will add players in the off season. How specific these promises are is not known, but the fact is that Gardenhire has done his job well and is not responsible for the three year 90 plus loss seasons the Twins have endured.

I think Gardenhire kept this team together this year and without his leadership a total collapse would have occured.  When Tom Kelly decided to retire, I remember telling a high place Twins executive that they had no choice but to hire Gardenhire. That was and still is the right move.

By the way, the Cubs just fired Dale Sveum as manager, and Gardenhire could have moved there.

Matt Harvey and the Ulnar Collateral Ligament

Major league pitchers are remarkable athletes who have the ability to throw a baseball at high velocity, often spinning it so it bends in its flight, with such accuracy that they could “drive a nail” with the pitch from a distance of 60’6″. In doing this, they are able to earn huge salaries for mutlitple years. Teams depend on the stars to provide stability by providing consistent performance. However, each pitcher has a constant fear that he will injure his arm. Where this can be an injury to almost any part of the arm, it is the ulnar collateral ligament here that causes the most trouble.

Yesterday, the New York Mets announced that its All-Star, Matt Harvey, has torn this ligament. Harvey, 9 wins and 5 losses, is leading the National League in strikeouts with 191 in 1781/3 innings pitched and is second with an earned run average of 2.27. He is a remarkable pitcher, who, at 24, could perform at this level for ten years or more. That is, if he over comes this injury.

The ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) is located on the medial or inside of the elbow. I has three parts that serve to keep the elbow, involing the Ulna and Radius of the upper arm and the Humerus of the lower arm, together. The UCL connects the Ulna to the Humerus and tries to keep the connection firm and tight. Where there is injury to the UCL, a valgus force occurs and that means the connection is not tight and the elbow bows slightly.

What this means for a pitcher is that the last two actions of the pitching motion, elbow flex and then wrist flex in a curve ball, is disrupted and control and velocity is impaired. That is why Mets’ Manage, Terry Collins, mentioned that Harvey’s pitches were “not as crisp” as they had been. Some pitchers can pitch with this problem, but normally a power pitcher like Harvey (see: strikeouts, above) can not do so. I have seen power pitchers try to become breaking ball, change-up pitches, but rarely with success.

The cure for UCL injury is what is called Tommy John surgery, named for the Dodger lefthander who first underwent the procedure. A video of the precedure is here. As you can see, this is involved surgery with holes drilled into bones and tendons harvested from other parts of the body. However, there is a high degree of success for those pitchers who have undergone this procedure. Tommy John, Chris Carpenter and John Smoltz come to mind, and some have suggested that this may become mandatory surgery for young pitchers because the reconstructed elbow may be more stable than a normal elbow. However there is a better way and that is by compelling pitchers to pursue a rigorous training program that strengthens the ligaments.
Briefly, they should follow the UCL surgery, post-op proceedures, as religiously as someone who is recovering from the surgery does. Benefits are well worth the effort.

Matt Harvey is the latest of the power pitchers to damage his UCL. This may cost him a year of rehabilitation, but he will be back. Tommy John procedures are refined now and are more effective. The only question I have is why this sudden rash of such injuries. I was told once that a pitchers arm should be “loosey goosey,” that is, it should look like a “woman’s” arm (sorry, that is an old reference, ladies). Now, players are ripped and maybe the muscles are stronger than the ligaments and that power causes the tears. Once, I heard a pitcher’s (Ralph Lumenti) arm break while throwing a fastball. Clearly, the forces are there to do the damage, so strength in the elbow should me emphasized. But this is not a death sentence for Matt Harvey, he will be back, and, I might add, will be well paid during his rehab.

Ignominy and the MLB Cellar Dweller

As August dwindles and the last month of the MLB season promises an exciting race to the pennant or wild card birth for the playoffs, another race is underway. This is the effort by several teams to avoid the ignominy of finishing last, or in the cellar, as it is called. For some, this motivation is as strong as the passion to win the pennant.

In the AL Central, the suddenly resurgent White Sox, eight wins in the last ten recently, are now pressing the Twins and are three games behind them. The White Sox have been miserable this year, but they have been playing better. However, the schedule maker has them playing against contenders the rest of the way.  Where they play Houston this week, and Houston is trying to avoid setting a record for futility, they then play Boston, New York, Baltimore, Detroit, Cleveland, Minnesota and finish against Kansas City. The three with Minnesota will be critical. The edge Chicago may have is that these teams will be tense and the Sox may be able to pick them off. That, after all, is the role of the spoiler, that team with no chance of winning a pennant, that can have an impact by beating those who do.   

The Twins have a slight schedule advantage by playing Toronto three times, but play contenders most of the time. The last eleven are with Oakland, Detroit and Cleveland, all of these teams need to win at the end. 

In the NL Central, Milwaukee and the Cubs are two games apart, with the Cubs in the cellar. Both teams play contenders, but the Cubs get the Marlins for three and the Brewers finish with the Mets. The critical games are the seven they play against each other. To not finish behind the Cubs should be sufficient incentive motivation to keep the Brewers motivated.

The most interesting race to avoid ignominy is in the NL West, Colorado, 61-71, San Diego, 59-71, and San Francisco, 58-72 are within in two games of each other with San Francisco last.   

San Francisco will play the other members of this trio twelve times in the remaining thirty-two, San Diego plays Colorado and SF nine times, but gets the floundering Phillies three times, and Colorado plays SF and SD nine times, but finish against Boston and the Dodgers. This is a race to watch on a daily basis.

Now that you see the match ups, remember that this is late season baseball and top teams are often “playing with their hands around their throats,”  Hands on Throat Reference and those trying to avoid the ignominy of the cellar can determine the actual pennant and live vicariously during the Winter knowing they were not the worst and helped determine who was the best.  

MLB Pennant Race on August 25

I wrote on August 12 about the Wild Card race here and added the Yankees to the mix recently here. The Yankees have the benefit of the right schedule but they need to win half the time versus Tampa Bay, Boston and Baltimore. So far, they have lost two to Tampa Bay to move 4.5 games behind in the Wild Card race. They must win against the top teams to allow the schedule to work for them.

The most disapointing feature of the race is the Kansas City Royals seven game losing streak. I am a Royals rooter because I like seeing teams improve to the point they can contend. There are three steps to this process, first you learn to play, then you learn to win, finally you learn to win when you have to. The Royals have clearly not learned the last step. Maybe next year.

As an example of this process, the Miami Marlins, who have been playing better, lost a game 3-2 to Colorado because of the failure to cut off a throw from the outfield that allowed Michael Cuddyer to advance to second after a game tying single. He scored the winning run moments later on a double. The Marlins learned the second lesson there as this is the sort of play a winning team makes.

These are the days where winning Fifth Games ( Fifth Game Theory) is all important. Last night, Texas lost 3-2 to the White Sox, who scored in the bottom of the ninth. Oakland won in Baltimore with a run in the top of the ninth. These are examples of Fifth Games that must be won by pennant contenders.

As I look at box scores every day, I look first at the line score to see who won in the last three innings. This is because a baseball game is really two games in one. The first game is a six inning game that is played to gain an advantage in the three inning game. This short game is played by specialists, relief pitchers, closers, pinch hitters, defensive replacements and the like. To win pennants, teams have to have competence in the “specialist” category. Take a look at the line score to gain an appreciation of the nature of the game. As Yogi Berra said,”It ain’t over until it is over,” and that means after the last out.

The Truth About MLB Free Agency

My friend, Murray Chass, (www.murraychass.com) has posted an article in the New York Times that properly describes the history of MLB free agency. I was involved in this matter as well. The historical error often cited in this matter is that the Flood v. Kuhn Supreme Court case was important, and, as Flood lost the case, it was important only in that it gave MLB a false sense of security in the court process. The Jim “Catfish Hunter” case is also erroneously cited, but that was a breach of contract case and had nothing to do with labor law.

The error in the Messersmith/McNally case was that MLB did not understand the role of the arbitrator, Peter Seitz, and the deference shown arbitrator decisions by federal courts. Baseball always thought it could have a decision overturned if it was adverse to them. MLB was wrong.

Arbitration is a contractual relationship between the parties where they agree that a conflict will be decided by an arbitrator according to rules that are, in the case of labor matters, collectively bargained. This agreement controls the outcome and it can be reversed only if the arbitrator can be shown to have acted badly by not disclosing conflicts of interest, bias, or a flagrant disregard of the law. The test is whether “the decision draws its essence from the contract.” Not a hard test, as history has proven.

None of these factors were present in the Messersmith/McNally case and Peter Seitz’s decision that created free agency was upheld by the federal court of appeals sitting in Kansas CIty. The rest is history, but MLB’s failure to understand labor law would again bite it when it failed to properly declare impasse in 1994, the year of no World Series, that lead to then Judge Sonya Sotomayor’s decision against it in a labor case in March 1995.

We are now looking at the arbitration of the Alex Rodriguez 211 game suspension and will find out if anything has been learned.

MLB Playoffs 2013- updated September 12.

MLB’s playoff format was changed for 2012 by adding a one game playoff between the teams with the second highest winning percentage among non-division winners. Previously, the team with the highest winning percentage was the wild card and played the winningest team, if that team was not in its division, for the Division Championship, prelude to the League Championship Series.

What this means is that contenders in August and September are focusing on that second wild card position and that creates some interesting scenarios. In the National League, the scenario is who plays whom with five teams all but guaranteed playoff positions. The second highest winning percentage is Cincinnati’s  .556. 65 wins v. 52 losses. No one else is close. The only question is whether the wild cards, all from the NL Central,  will include èittsburgh or St. Louis, depending on whether the Pirates can hold its 3 game lead over St. Louis. That will be close, but this one game playoff, Cincinnati v. either St. Louis or PIttsburgh, will be very competitive.

In the American League, the situation is not so clear as there are three teams Tampa Bay, Oakland, and Baltimore, that will make up the two teams that playoff for the Wild Card position in the Division Series. If Oakland beats Texas or Tampa beats Boston and wins the Division, make the changes that implies. It will be interesting.

The determining factor will be the teams’ ability to win under pressure. See here The games will be largely determined by the ability to catch the ball and make plays in the field, the most rudimentary of baseball actions.

UPDATE- I now include Kansas City and New York in the Wild Card Race as both teams have played very well. There will be two wild cards this year, so pay attention.

NY Daily News Links Alex Rodriguez and Victor Conte

The New York Daily News here wrote about a meeting between Alex Rodriguez and Balco founder, Victor Conte who spend four months in jail for his connection to illegal steroid distribution to athletes, Marion Jones, Barry Bonds and Jason Giambi. The meeting took place in San Francisco in May 2012. Conte told Rodriguez that he could only offer legal supplements and commented on a blood test. He then sent Bonds supplements that he creates at SNAC, his supplement company. Thus story only adds to the story of how Rodriguez was seeking enhancement from different sources and Conte would only supply legal products. In fact, after looking at the product labels, these are products that I can buy at TAO.com  here in Minneapolis while eating vegan chili. The only new story is Conte’s marketing genius in linking his products to Rodriguez.  I am sure sales will be brisk this week.

MLB Trade Deadline Decisions

The MLB non-waiver trade deadline is nine days awaý. A team’s decision making process depends on its position now. If a team is well below  .500, any trade that helps the team long term must be made. That means a  good player must be traded for a collection of players that will help next year and the years that follow. A team has an obligation to do this and that means, if the right trade is offered, for example, the Twins must trade Justin Morneau, but only if they get the right players, hopefully pitchers, in return.
If a team is realistically in a position to win the division, it must make a deal that aids that pursuit. For example, the Tigers are a closer from assuring it wins the AL Central and must give up the player or players to get that closer.
Ultimately, the decision is based on scouting reports and that is the ultimate test of an organization. A team’s scouts are the most important asset it has and the trades that occurr now are based on those reports.
This is a very tense time for teams and the decisions made are of maximum importance. I look forward to reading the news and watching the results. 

How to Manage a Team and Win the Pennant

The Major league season is past the quarter pole and has taken a very interesting turn as teams that were predicted to dominate are disasters.
    In the  AL Central,  Cleveland and Detroit are tied at the top and KC just behind. Detroit will win that one, but Cleveland is good and is playing very well. KC may surprise all of us, but I don’t think they have enough yet to win in the long season.
    In the AL East, the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, and Rays are all over .500 and only Toronto is failing . Of course, readers of this blog will remember that I predicted the Jays would win it all. That was because, on paper, they had a very good team, but it is playing horribly with key players not performing, see Bautista’s record.  
    In the AL West, the Angels are horrible. With Trout, Pujols, Hamiltom, Trumbo and Hendrick in the batting order, this team should score lots of runs, but it is not and can’t pitch. A real and expensive disaster.
    In the National League Central, the Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates are within 2.5games. This was predictable, and I have suggested the emergence of the Pirates for two years. This division is the prime example of baseball culture dominating.
    In the NL East, the Braves, Nationals, and Phillies are within 3.5 games. The Phillies are doing it by sheer desire. The Braves and Nationals are wonderful teams, great players, good pitching and both teams drip baseball culture. The Braves have had that feature for decades; the Nats have developed it over two seasons, a tribute to Lerner and company.
    In the West, we find the worst disaster of all time. The D’Backs, Giants, and Rockies are over .500. The Dodgers, the highest salaried team in MLB, is in last place. (See update below!) With good hitting, they are not scoring runs.  Contrasting the Dodgers and Giants is a study of baseball culture being dominant in SF and deteriorating in LA.

     Let’s pretend you are running a team. You will  need to look at what non-uniformed managers can do to keep it going or reverse a slide. I sat with a group of sports executives a few years ago and I asked “what management could do?” “Where could management make a difference beyond the selection of players.” In other words, once your team is selected, what options are there for improving performance?.
    
    Here are some suggestions, listed in no particular order,

Technique. Coaching can improve play through instruction and improved technique, but in the top professional leagues, this is incremental change, only.

Training .Players can be coached to be physically fit for stamina, quickness and speed. This also is an injury prevention and recovery program.

Body knowledge This is training again to have the player aware of his physical strengths and weaknesses and correct through weight lifting and other exercises. This has an injury prevention aspect as well.

Diet. This means eating to stay at the right weight, neither too much or too little. Players do lose weight and strength and this can be monitored and corrected.

Nutrition. This is telling players what to eat, fewer Twinkies, (Yes, they are back) and more protein. This is actually very important and nutritional counseling should be offered at the earliest days of a career.

Equipment: The players simply have to have the correct equipment from shoes to caps, bats, sticks, helmets etc. No secret here
.
Drug counseling. This is obvious for two reasons. First, drugs have health risks, and Second, a player that fails drug testing is lost to the team.

Mental training: Here counseling should be offered to keep players balanced during period of stress, like every day. Sports are marked by failure and players have to learn how to handle it. There are more mental casualties than physical career ending events. The simple management technique here is to make sure a player hears three positive comments to each negative one. This is to develop a positive attitude. For example, tell a player who just grounded out that he had a good swing, hit a good pitch and almost got it. This is the difference between missing a put and thinking you almost made a put. The latter attitude will sink the next one. I told Harmon Killebrew that he struck out on a great pitch, he said, “ I just missed it.”

Social style counseling: Part one: This is how to be a good teammate, building cohesion, and supporting others. Part two. Family and friends’ This means be careful of who you hang out with and keep your wife happy. Family peace helps a player and discord has an effect on the field.

    Implementation of these programs gets at developing a baseball culture, which is all about scoring or preventing runs. Nothing else matters. This requires total focus on baseball at every step, from the ushers, the concession workers and vendors to the players, 24/7, as they say. This is what the Nationals, Rangers, Braves, A’s, Cardinals, Reds, Tigers and Giants have, and the Dodgers have just recovered it and are now, August 10, five games ahead of Arizona. It is this culture that wins pennants and that culture is built with focus on the management elements listed above.