Daily Archives: March 18, 2014

Malaysia 370, Did the Pilots Die in a Fire? The Occam’s Razor Solution (updated)

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Although the theory here is interesting, the sighting at 6:15 AM in the Maldives, two hours behind the Straits of Malacca, means the plane would have been flying for 8 hours up to that point. Also, it only takes four hours to fly the distance. So two hours are not accounted for. Also, the plane made the left turn from the Beijing course and that turn was not done on an emergency basis as it was programmed into the flight computer. A pilot made the “good night” comment after the turn and was not distressed.
So I am back to the original theory Here. This one is gaining popularity.

But this story is still interesting. I wonder how many more interesting stories we will read tomorrow.
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The latest, and I must say, compelling for Occam’s Razor reasons is the theory that the plane turned from its original course to Beijing because it was looking for a place to land due to a fire in the nose or cockpit. The theory has it that the fire was caused by a nose wheel that overheated on the long take off run in Kuala Lumpur and burst into flame when retracted. This has happened before. Pilots would immediately upon noting the smoke and flames, turn for the nearest airport. Pilots are said to always be aware of the nearest airport for just such emergencies. 

The turn to the left or West, took place, but the fire intensified, killed the pilots and who know who else, and the plane, then over the straits of Malacca, was pointed south of the southern tip of India, four hours away.  With the plane in turmoil, the pilots and more dead, maybe with the cockpit door bolted closed, it just flew on. This occured about 1:30AM.

What makes this plausible is the story this morning that a fisherman in the Maldive Islands (West of the southern tip of India) saw a white jumbo jet fly over at low altitude at 6:15AM. Flight time from Kuala Lumpur to Male, Maldive is 4 hours, 29 minutes. The time matches. (UPDATE: The time doesn’t match. The Maldives are two hours behind Kuala Lumpur))

This is appealing for Occam’s Razor puposes because it doesn’t require nefarious plots, secret airbases, Uyghurs, Al Queda, pilots killing pilots and the rest of the story we have heard so far. All that is required is a calamitous fire, pilots overcome, and a plane that can fly itself. All of that is present here. Maybe we should be looking 500 miles to the west of the Maldives in the Indian Ocean. It the easiest answer so far.

NOTE: Occam’s Razor says the simplest answer is often the correct answer.

Malaysian 370, Did the Pilots Do It?

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The big question today about MH 370 is the degree to which one or both pilots were involved in the plane’s disappearance.
John Hinderaker, with whom I have discussed this issue at great length, has pubished this article in Powerlineblog.com.
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It is clear that Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 was hijacked by an experienced pilot who knew
how to operate a Boeing 777. This report in the New York Times supports what was already an
overwhelming conclusion:
The first turn to the west that diverted the missing Malaysia Airlines plane
from its planned flight path from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing was carried out
through a computer system that was most likely programmed by someone in
the plane’s cockpit who was knowledgeable about airplane systems, according
to senior American officials.
Instead of manually operating the plane’s controls, whoever altered Flight
370’s path typed seven or eight keystrokes into a computer on a knee-high
pedestal between the captain and the first officer, according to officials. The
Flight Management System, as the computer is known, directs the plane from
point to point specified in the flight plan submitted before a flight. It is not
clear whether the plane’s path was reprogrammed before or after it took off.
Suspicion has focused on pilot Zaharie Ahmad Shah and first officer Fariq Ab Hamid for one
obvious reason: they were the only people on board the airline who, as far as is publicly
known, knew how to fly it. Certainly the airplane could have been taken over by one or more
Islamic terrorists, but it would have to be someone far better trained than those who carried
out the September 11 attacks–someone at or close to the level of a commercial airline pilot. A
list of the passengers on the flight has been made public, but little or no information about
them is known. China has said that it conducted background checks on the Chinese nationals
who were on board (around two-thirds of the passengers) and found no links to terrorist
groups. That at least reduces the likelihood of Uighurs being responsible.
There is another possibility that I have not seen discussed: here in the U.S., it is common for
airline employees to hitch rides on their airline’s flights when seats are available. Could there
have been another Malaysia Airlines pilot “deadheading” to Beijing on Flight 370, perhaps one
with links to extremist groups? I have seen no discussion of that possibility. Thus, while we
cannot rule out the possibility that there was another skilled pilot on board the airplane, at
present there is zero evidence to support that supposition.
Which brings us back to the pilot and co-pilot. As the only people on the airplane known to
have the skill and experience demonstrated by the hijacker(s), they are the prime suspects.
That said, nothing that has come out about Zaharie Ahmad Shah or Fariq Ab Hamid adds
materially to the case against them. Shah had a flight simulator in his home? So what? His
wife and children left home the day before Flight 370 took off? OK, but did they flee the
country or go to visit grandparents? He was a supporter of a prominent Malaysian politician
who opposed the current government? That cuts in the other direction; Shah supported a
“normal” political party, not a terrorist group. As former El-Al security chief Isaac Yeffet said ,
Shah does not fit the profile of a terrorist.
Neither does first officer Hamid. He was 27 years old and engaged to be married. No one has
described any connections with radical Islamic or other potentially terrorist groups. As with
Shah, no one has brought forth any evidence to suggest that Hamid may have been suicidal.
Attention has focused on Hamid because he allegedly spoke the last words from the
airplane–”all right, good night”–at around the time the transponders were turned off. If it
really was Hamid, and if the communication came after at least one of the transponders was
switched off, it would suggest that Hamid was most likely the hijacker. But there has been
confusion about the exact timing of the message, and it is not clear why officials at Malaysian
Airlines say they think the voice was Hamid’s. Even if one assumes they could distinguish
Hamid’s voice from Shah’s, it is not clear how they could confidently distinguish Hamid’s
voice from that of an unknown hijacker.
There was no known connection between Shah and Hamid, and apparently they were
randomly assigned to Flight 370. It is therefore extremely unlikely that both were involved in
the hijacking. If one of the pilots was the culprit, it appears that he would have had to
disable, in some way, the other pilot.
The case against the pilots, in short, is weak. But they will remain the prime suspects–really,
the only suspects–unless and until it comes to light that there was someone else on board
capable of flying the aircraft at a professional or near-professional level.
Meanwhile, the central mystery of Flight 370 remains: where is the airplane? Until we know
where the airplane was flown, we can only speculate about why it was hijacked. Until we
know why it was hijacked, we can only speculate about who did it. Finding the airplane may
or may not solve the puzzle of what happened to it, and why; but until the airplane is found,
any theory we can put forward will be speculative at best.