Wednesday night was the final curtain for several teams with playoff hopes. The Yankees lost to Tampa Bay 8-3 and, when coupled with the Indians’ win over Chicago, were eliminated from post season play for only the second time in nineteen years. This also signaled the end of the Mariano Rivera era and his significant contribution to success over his career. Kansas City lost and its hopes ended as well. We will see more of this fine, young team next year. Both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati lost, setting the stage for the three games they play each other in Cincinnati this weekend. Pittsburgh has a one game lead over Cincinnati, so, if Cincinnati wins the series, it has home field advantage based on the record between the two teams this season where they are tied 8-8 at this time. Regardless, these two teams will play for the wild card on October 1.
In the American League, Texas remains one game behind Cleveland for the second wild card slot. Tampa Bay leads Cleveland by one as well. An interesting note here is that the inter-league, unbalanced schedule means that Texas has played seventy-eight games against +.500 teams and the Rays have played 100+.500 teams. A large part of the difference is that Texas is 17-2 against Houston. That is reality. Cleveland plays at Minnesota and the Twins play well at home and have played well there against Cleveland, Texas plays at home against the Angels who need two wins to finish at .500, a significant achievement for them, and Tampa Bay plays at Toronto. What this means is that these three teams will play intensely to finish and win. Just think that if Toronto sweeps Tampa Bay, the Rangers win two of three with the Angels and Cleveland loses two of three in Minnesota, all teams will be at 89-72, a three team tie. This is highly unlikely, but it is baseball, so is possible. We will worry about that on Sunday.
The wild card games will be played October 1 for the NL and October 2 for the AL. The games will be played, if I am to hazard a guess, in Cincinnati and Tampa Bay. We’ll see.
Jason Giambi hit a “walk off” pinch hit home run last night to beat Chicago and keep the Indians one game ahead of the Texas Rangers for the final wild card slot in the Majors. The Indians have won five in a row and have five games remaining against Chicago (1) and Minnesota (4). Texas has Houston (1) and LAA (4). The Indians should make it, but they have had problems in Minnesota this year and the Twins are well lead and will not lay down.
The NL Division series will start October 1, with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati playing a one game playoff game. The location, if played today, would be Pittsburgh, as the Pirates now have a one game lead. The two teams play the last three against each other in Cincinnati this weekend and that will determine the victor.
The most interesting factor in the 2013 Playoffs is that of the ten teams involved, seven of the teams are small and mid-sized markets. Only Atlanta, LA, and Boston are large market teams. Detroit is a mid-sized market, but the rest, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and St.Louis are in the bottom half of MLB rankings of market size. Oakland, due to its poor stadium, is classified as a small market due to low local revenue.
This indicates that design and intellect still matter. I once classified MLB teams as being capital intensive or labor intensive organizations and here the labor (or intellect) intensive teams are prevailing. There is a lesson here that should not be lost on the large market teams in New York, Chicago and the Angels as they try to recover in 2014. There is a way to do this and planning and thinking leads the way.
Revenue sharing allows small market teams to retain their better players, so the free agent market does not allow large market teams to spend their way to success. They will have to do it the old fashion way by scouting well and developing players in the Minor Leagues. It is, in my opinion, the only way.
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds both won last night, the Reds in 10 innings over the Mets, to clinch a playoff berth. They have identical records and the three game series between the two teams this weekend will settle the home field advantage, if they remain tied going into that series. They are only two game behind St. Louis, but the Cardinals show no sign of losing the division lead.
In the American League, Tampa Bay, Cleveland and Texas all won last night, so Texas remains one game in back of Cleveland. As pointed out before, Cleveland has the easier schedule and should win. That “easier schedule” does include Minnesota this weekend and the Twins are showing some late season energy in that they beat the Tigers in 11 innings last night on a single by Josmil Pinto. This catcher played in AA baseball this summer until he was called up to the Majors this month. He is batting. 359 so far. is he for real or just a September wonder? What all of that means is that Cleveland will have to play well until their Wild Card berth is settled, one way or another and the Twins will not give in. This is typical of baseball teams, by the way.
Next week we will be dealing with a new set of facts, equally engaging, and set to determine participation in the World Series. “Fall Baseball is War,” here and these are continuing battles.
The MLB WIld Card playoffs begin October 1 with the National League’s Wild Card playoff. This is new this year as two teams will be Wild Card teams and will play one game to determine who plays against the division champion with the highest winning record. Today that is Atlanta with 92 wins, but that could change this week as St. Louis has 91 wins and LAD has 90 wins. Of equal interest is the fact that the two wild card teams have identical records at 89-67 and are 8-8 in their season series, the first tie breaker to determine home field advantage. Pittsburgh and CIncinnati play each other the last three games in Cincinnati, so they probably will not know where the wild card game will be played until the final game is played. Of course, that depends on how Pittsburgh does on the road against the Cubs and Cincinnati does at home against the Mets. Both are three game series, and we won’t know who the winner plays until next week. Atlanta has a one game lead as the highest rated division winner, and that will probably hold.
In the American League, the situation is not so clear as to the Wild Card team, but the Red Sox have a two game lead, so the Wild Card winner will play in Fenway Park October 2. Who will be that winner? Tampa Bay has a .5 game lead over Cleveland but plays the extra game today against Baltimore. (The “extra game” is one brings Tampa Bay even in games played.) They then finish on the road against the Yankees and Toronto. Cleveland has the easy schedule and that is why I picked them to be a Wild Card team, as they play the White Sox and Twins, and both of those teams are playing poorly. In short, we won’t know where the Wild Card game will be played until next weekend. I think it will be in Cleveland, but the Indians have played poorly at Minnesota this year. If either of these teams falters, the Rangers are only 1.5 games behind and play Houston and LAA at home for the final seven. They could easily sweep Houston, but the Angels will be trying to finish over .500, so will be into it. Anything can happen here, and I have seen too much baseball to predict what will happen in this close finish, but he winner will play in Fenway Park against the very good Red Sox.
The wild card in these races is how each team did in the inter-league games they played this year. Teams play twenty such games, but play against different teams unlike intra-league games where they play the same teams and intra-division games where they play each team nineteen times. The Indians are 11-9, Rays 12-8 and Rangers 10-10 in these games. (In the National League, Cincinnati was 11-9 and the Pirates 15-5.) Inter League games have an effect, but the telling factor this week is that Tampa Bay is on the road where they were -3 this year and Cleveland plays two at home where they were +20 and then four on the road where they were also -3.
The season started April 1, and we only had ideas of how it would end. (My predictions are in the archives, if you wish. Remember they were written when there was still a foot of snow on my yard.) So we are in the last week. In short, who knows what gifts baseball has for us this week, but it will be interesting. The Division Chamionship starts as soon as these Wild Card games are played and then we will have the League Championship Series, and then the World Series to follow. For the LCS and WS, I only ask for three seven game series with the last game played on October 31. It is appropriate that the last game of the World Series may be played on Halloween; Trick or Treat is the way the game is played.
George Will writes here about the college football money tree. He begins by describing the head injuries that are the necessary result of playing the game of football and continues by describing the income derived from the play of the players, and the salaries paid to head football coaches.
The suggestion, is, of course, that this is a world beyond the control of college administrators.
For my “Questions About the NFL Concussion Settlement”, that shows how those players and the league have settled the issues concerning brain injury, go here. There is a NCAA lawsuit as well, but no settlement soon, I am told.
On September 19, I wrote about highly competitive games in MLB the night before. here and the same battles occurred last night. Detroit won a 5-4 game versus Seattle, Cleveland beat Houston in eleven innings, 2-1. San Francisco beat the Mets 2-1, LAD beat the Diamondbacks 7-6, Washington beat the Marlins 3-2 and Colorado beat the Cardinals 7-6 in fifteen innings. There were other games, but these were the notable one run and extra-innings games that show the intensity of the last month of the season.
Of particular note are the San Francisco and Colorado victories where both teams are trying to avoid last place and the ignominy that goes with that. See here for a discussion of teams and pride.
On September 3, I wrote that “Fall Baseball is War” here. With that in mind, September 18 was the Battle of the Bulge. The stituation going into that night’s games found Detroit, Atlanta, La Dodgers, Boston and Oakland comfortably in first place in their divisions, and St. Louis two games ahead of Pittsburgh. but Pittsburgh, and Cincinatti 2.5 game back, along with St. Louis will make up the Division winner and NL Wild Card races, so there is little drama in the National League, unless, of course, Washington wins them all going forward.
The war is in the American League Wild Card race where Tampa Bay and Texas now lead, but Cleveland is .5 games back and Baltimore, New York and Kansas City are within 2.5. Anything can happen and the teams that are hot will prevail.
The fact that Fall Baseball is War is shown by the scores last night. The Angels beat Oakland 4-3 in ten innings, Baltimore beat Boston 5-3 in twelve innings, Tampa Bay beat Texas 4-3 in twelve innings, Cincinnati beat Houston 6-5 in thirteen innings, and Miami beat Philadelphia 4-3 in ten innings. The five extra inning games were joined with the Yankees 4-3 (four in the eighth for the Yankees) win over Toronto, San Diego beat Pittsburgh 3-2, scoring two in the ninth, St. Louis beat Colorado 4-3, and the New York Mets beat San Francisco 5-4 scoring four in the bottom of the ninth. So the five extra inning games were matched by four one run games.
These bitterly contested games came after 152 had been played and only the AL Wild to be decided. What is most indicative of the furious nature of Fall Baseball is that Houston, with only 51 wins and 101 losses, battled Cincinnati in a thirteen inning game, and Miami with 56 wins and 96 losses went ten to beat the Phillies. The intense comprtitiveness of a MLB season never lets up. Baseball players never quit. Every at-bat, every pitch thrown in reflected in their careet records and is used to deterine salaries for the coming year or multi-years. Even the last batter, on the last pitch thrown to a Houston player, will be trying with all his skill to make a hit, and the pitcher making that pitch will be trying to get an out. This is the very nature of a Major League Season, the long season, where the differences between teams at this point may appear to be great, but really comes down to the ability to win the Fifth Games, of which there are thirty-two each year. (SEE: Fifth Game Theory). These are the games, won or lost, that determine winners, even down to the last game.
The AL Wild Card race is becoming clearer. In two weeks the regular season will be over, and,we will know more, and may even have a playoff for the playoffs, an interesting scenario. This morning finds Texas and Tampa Bay tied at 81-67 for the two Wild Card slots. Cleveland is now only .5 games behind, with Baltimore 2.5 back and New York 3 back. On August 23 Here that the Yankees, due to the easy schedule in the last twelve games had a real chance to make the Wild Card, however, the Yankees have faltered. Where they had to win half the games against the better teams, Baltimore and Boston, they have lost 8 of 12, and dominate the lesser teams, they beat Chicago times. The poor showing against Boston, especially, where they lost 7 of 8, is the reason they remain 3 games back. The Red Sox, I am certain, regale in their role in the Yankees apparent demise.
The Orioles likewise, lost 6 of 8 against NY and Cleveland. They did win 5 of 8 against Toronto and the White Sox. They remain 2.5 games behind.
The team that has won according to the dominate/breakeven rule is the Cleveland Indians. They won 6 of 7 against the Mets and White Sox in September, and won 4 of 7 against KC, Balitmore and Detroit. They are .5 games behind. If any of the three teams are to make the Wild Card, it seems the Indians are the team. They will have to pass Tampa or Texas to do that.
Texas has only won 1 of 10 recently and play Tampa Bay and KC 7 times this week. They finish with Houston and LAA. Tampa Bay, of course, has the 4 against Texas at home this week and then play 7 against NYY and Baltimore before the final three in Toronto.
Tampa Bay and Cleveland are the probable winners here. However, baseball has strange twists. Yesterday, trying to win its twelth in a row against Minnesota, ran into a Twins team that hadn’t scored in 25 innings only to have the Twins score twice in the 7th on a single by Chris Parmelee, BA .223 and four times in the 8th, three runs coming on a homerun by Josimil Pinto, a catcher who spent the Summer in AA, to win the game. Tampa Bay will remember that piitch to Pinto if they fail to make the playoffs. That final three in Toronto are critical.
There is another race worth noting and that is to avoid the Igniminy and the MLB Cellar Dweller, Here. In the NL West, San Francisco, San Diego are tied and Colorado 1 game down for last place. Maybe they will all tie for last, or, as they would describe it, fourth, place and all will avoid the Ignominy of the Cellar Dweller.
The last two weeks of the regular season, like all of September is War, after that we have the playoffs and then the long, cold Winterl
Confederate General Thomas Jonathan “Stonewall” Jackson was a spectacular general. He is famous for his Chancellorsville attack that nearly destroyed the Union Army of the Potomac in May 1863, yet it was his victory at Harper’s Ferry September 12-15, 1862, was his most brilliant. This victory captured 12.600 federal troops and made the battle of Antietam on September 17 possible. That was the bloodiest single day of the war. NOTE: Jackson was shot by friendly fire from a North Carolina regiment at the conclusion of the Chancellorsville battle and died several days later of pneumonia.
Thanks to RealHistory, an account of that battle that details Jackson’s tactical brilliance is available Here. This is an important article for Civil War historians, of which I am one, and asks the question of what this brilliant tactician would have done if he had lived to lead his corp at Gettysburg. This corp, failed to take the high ground of Culp’s Hill on the first day of that battle and allowed Union General Meade to maintain the very defensible Cemetery Ridge line that was the key to the battle.
My friend, George Will, says that Meade would have withdrawn from Gettysburg and taken up a position at the equally formidable Pipe Creek line and won the battle there, but his family is from Illinois and mine from North Carolina.
I find Harper’s Ferry to be a mystical place and this article describes its military importance in 1862.
http://www.clarkgriffithblog.com 