Author Archives: clarkgriffith

What Important Facts 26% of Americans Don’t Know

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In an NPR article Here  on a National Science Foundation science survey, shows, among other interesting results, that 26% of Americans believe that the sun revolves around the earth!! How can this be? How many times is a student told the truth about the earth revolving around the sun before the third grade? How can a quarter of the population believe in Ptolemy’s geocentric model from more than 2000 years ago that was debunked by Copernicus 600 years ago?

The survey was taken in 2012 and was released recently at a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Chicago. The survey also indicated that 39% were aware of the universe starting with a Big Bang and less than half knew of evolution of the human species. US respondents did better than Chinese and EU respondents on the astronomy question, but, by contrast, 66% of Chinese and 70% of EU residents were aware that humans had evolved from earlier species.

Just half knew that antibiotics were not effective against viruses.

In an increasingly complex world, it is very important that citizens be properly and accurately informed on scientific matters. This survey indicates that the basic scientific literacy is lacking and the ability to analyze scientific claims is badly impaired. This leaves the country open to scientific charlatans who would impose policies that injure the nation.

Our educators are urged to “ramp it up” with regard to basic scientific education so that the people have the knowledge necessary to make correct decisions on economic and political issues.

Sochi’s Warmth

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This morning I read that athletes at the Sochi 2014 WInter Olympics were fearing the end of Winter due to global warming. This is due to the warmth at Sochi, a Black Sea resort, 43 degrees North Latititude. To put that in perspective, Nice, France, and the Cote d’Azur are at that latitude.  Clearly, this is not a winter resort. This is not Oslo, Lillehammer, Turin or the other Winter sites where snow and cold are common. Story and photos of sunbathing athletes Here.

Sòchi was selected by the Olympic Committee after exteme lobbying by Vladimir Putin who wants to publicize this beach resort town on the Black Sea.  To get the games, the Russians had to promise to make snow and even “store” snow to protect against its absence.  The Winter Games are not in danger as long as sites are selected that are appropriate and snowy. 

The alarming aspect of this story is that people actually, after drinking the Kool AId, believe that so called global warming is the culprit. This is understandable as young athletes like to be politically correct and say the “cool” thing to the press.  But to have it reported is absurd.  However, this in no more absurd than the story today that the continiung arctic conditions over North America have been caused by warming!! How about that? Of course, people who can change passed law, a la ACA, on a whim, can certainly repeal the laws of thermodynamics.

A Tribute To Joan Mondale

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The Minnesota community paid tribute to Joan Mondale yesterday in a wonderful funeral at the Westminster Presbyterian Church in downtown Minneapolis. The musicians, some from the Minnesota Orchestra, and the superb choir provided a beautiful musical background for the service. Mozart, Rachmaninoff, Mendelssohn, Bach, Stravinsky, and Vaughan Williams wrote the music played in this celebration of a noted patron of the arts. She was, after all, known as Joan of Arts. 

Rochelle Olson wrote a wonderful account of the ceremony in the Star Tribune here that reports on what people said. Jimmy Carter was perfect. 

I attended the funeral with my friend Jay Swanson and his wife Ellen Dahl. Jay was  kind enough to drive. I ended up seated next to Minnesota State Senator Terri Bonoff and her husband Matthew Knopf.  We shared a hymnal.  Matthew and Jay are lawyers and are Dorsey Whitney partners, where Walter Mondale has been working for the last decade or so.

I had the distinct pleasure of knowing Joan Mondale, who actually lived for several years down the street on James Avenue.  In one memorable discussion of cooking and spices,  I found myself advocating for Tellicherry Black Pepper as the superb spice.  I think I used the term “piquant” to describe it. Joan was not so sure, so I went to my stash of Tellicherry, ground some fresh, and delivered it to her home. She was very gracious about the gift.

I am honored to know and count the Mondales as friends and neighbors. Ted was a law school friend and is running the local Stadium Commission. From all accounts given yesterday, Joan was the charming and talented equal partner in this dynamic family.

IRS Scandal: All You Need to Know in 7 Minutes and 3 Seconds

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Cleta Mitchell is a lawyer in Washington who represents citizens that have been harmed by big governement. The current administration offers ample opportunity for such a practice.  She is preeminent in the representation of those organizations who have sought or who are seeking §501(C)3 or §501(C)4 status that would allow them tax exempt status. These are primarily conservative goups who have been denied such status or whose applications are delayed beyond reason and for political purposes.  

Her recent testimony before Congress can be found here, This is the 7:03 minute video you need to watch as it details the illegality and lies involved in this scandal. 

Who Will Win SuperBowl XLVIII?

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I will make a prediction as to who I think will win the Super Bowl that starts in about 5 hours. I have not studied this matter all that much, but I have listened to hours of commentary on this game.  I also watched Broncos beat the Patriots and the Sea Hawks beat the 49ers.  Much has been said of the Sea Hawks vaunted defense, but there are those who point out that it was earned against the less stellar offenses. The Broncos offense is similarly extolled with Manning, the quarterback,  described as having almost divine skills.  

My observations from the two games I watched are that Manning is very good, but so is Colin Kaepernick of the 49ers, in fact, Kaepernick may be more explosive as he is a gifted runner. The Sea Hawks shut him down, not completely, but enough.  The Patriots could have won against Denver, but it was handicapped by not having several of its better players and Brady, its quarterback, was just a little off.  Manning, on the other hand, was “on.”

My conclusion is that the Sea Hawks will win a close game because I don’t think Wilson, its quarterback, will be a bit intimidated against Manning and will score enough to win. The Sea Hawk defense will contain Manning just enough, on the other hand, to win the game. 

Now, let’s talk about the unknowns, like fumbles, interceptions, and official’s whim. 
Fumbles speak for themselves. Ball carriers will lose control of the ball and that may result in a turnover. Each loss of possession in football results in points. The closer to the goal line, the more predictable the points.  No one knows who will fumble or where they will occur, it any, but if they do, the outcome can change, as change of possession has huge impact on games. 

Change of possession occurs on interceptions as well. The quarterbacks in this game are both very skilled, and, especially Manning, is unlikely to make the bone-headed throw to a linebacker that we see in Minnesota. The pure chance here is from the tipped ball. No one can predict the tip, or predict where the ball will land. If an interception occurs, it is by chance, but may change the outcome.

Now for the great unknown, official’s whim.  I once helped judge the great tomato contest with DIck Cullum, a venerable Minneapolis sports writer, who laid out the criteria for judging. The last such critieria was “Judge’s Whim.”  He said that’s the “only one that counts in the real world.”  Today, there will be over 100 plays and a referee and six officials who can call penalties on every play. There is a theory that each one can call a penalty on each play, that’s seven flags per play. That doesn’t happen because only blatant errors are called, but there is the whim element that determines whether the tackle is called for holding or the cornerback for interference.  There will be several such calls and a few will result in changes of possession and that possession is what, ultimately, determines the outcome of such games.

In brief, I think for reasons stated that the Sea Hawks win this one, but the variables will have an impact. 

James Avenue on February 1

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After the coldest January since 1974, maybe February will be more moderate. -10 tonight, however.

Review of “The Sabermetrics Revolution,” by Benjamin Baumer and Andrew Zimbalist

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From Amazon.com

This could be a very long review because this very important book contains much to comment on. I will, however, let you read this book to fully grasp what it says. You will have a complete review of baseball statistical analysis from the creation of the box score, through the Dodgers early efforts in the 1950’s, to early regression analysis and then the full blown Sabermetrics efforts of today. This book also does a great service in pointing out the errors Michael Lewis added to “Money Ball” the book and errors in the movie, that have bothered me since I first saw the movie. In fact, Lewis violated Bob Uecker’s first rule of resumes, “Don’t lie about your batting average, they’ll look that up.” by “altering fact.”

Zimbalist and Baumer provide a guide for the reader who wants to know what analytics is and what it does, and they go further by stating the limits as well. You will find, contrary to stats geeks, that scouting is in the ascendancy, as it should be.

What I found most enlightening is explanation of the distinction between statistical analysis and data analysis. This is because I think there is too much data out there and data science, through big data management, is the way to go and is the way the secrets locked in the data will be revealed. This is good news for Sabermetricians as their tools will be enhanced.

Simply stated, if you are a baseball person at whatever level, from fan to GM, this is the book for you. I think its impact will be significant and the game will be better understood because of it.

Buy it from Amazon Here……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

January 23 is Spring!!

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Some years ago, when I was worrying about when to start advertising for baseball, I ran into a psychologist’s paper that said “Psychological Spring Occurred on January 23.”  The paper went on to say that after the tumult of the holidays, and the long, dark days of winter, the increasingly bright days of late January actually got us to think optimistically of Spring. 

What this meant for we baseball guys, was that any effort before then to get fans focused on the coming season would only resonate with the rabid baseball fan. Those people we already had, it was the marginal fan we had to attract. So January 23rd became the launch date for major marketing activities. This doesn’t mean we didn’t try to sell season tickets before, what it means is that customers were more receptive to the message after 1/23.

Other industries also use this date for marketing activities. The sale of sun related merchandise, the summer stuff, bathing suits, sun tan lotion and such all pick up after Jan 23. Here in Minneapolis, with the weather at -15 this week, we saw the Baseball Diamond Awards take place to a full house and the coming Twins Fest is sold out this weekend. 

Spring blooms eternal and the optimism, fresh start and new birth of Spring does not wait for March to control our emotions. It is here now, and we are all two months ahead of the calender in the way we look at life. It is Spring, after all. 

 

 

Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka agrees to deal with New York Yankees – MLB News | FOX Sports on MSN

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This is the big story we’ve been waiting for! Yankees go deep for Tanaka.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/masahiro-tanaka-new-york-yankees-seven-year-deal-japan-ace-012214

Galapagos Cruise -The Second Day

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(see Day One above)
The Legend cruised west to Floreana during the evening, anchoring off a small, curved beach on the North side of the island that led to a trail into the interior. This area is called the Post Office because a Captain James Colnett in the 1750’s put a barrel on shore so that passing sailors could place mail to be picked up by homeward bound sailors and delivered to the addressee in Wales or some such place. 

This system is still in place as visitors deliver post cards and passing “sailors” select those addressed to places close to their homes. One woman did find one addressed to a home a few blocks from her Ohio home and, I presume, it has been delivered by now.

Alejandro gave an historical view of Floreana, focusing on the fact that it has the only freshwater source, a spring in the hills, of any of the islands. This means there were permanent settlers here. There were three groups of interest. The first was a group of four, one woman and three lovers, who arrived in the late 19th Century. Apparently, one of the lovers left, only to be replaced  by a new fellow, but after that, another one left and then suddenly the woman disappeared.  This woman was called the Duchess on account of the fact she was married to a Duke. Good enough for me, but I would like to know what happened to the Duke!

The next group was Norwegians who read a report from some fishermen that the Galapagos were a paradise. So they sold everything and travelled to Floreana, built a factory and went broke as there were no customers. They soon realized that the fishermen were referring to the Galapagos as a paradise because of the off-shore fishing. (An earlier Spanish explorer had reported to the King of Spain that the Galapagos, because of the arid condition and no water that he could find “was hell on earth.” He didn’t find the water source on Floreana! )  So they left.
The third group in the 1920-30 period, included a woman who left the island, travelled to California, then to the US east coast, then to Germany only to be killed in a British air raid in 1943. I have this vision of her travelling in pursuit of her fate. Don’t we all?

After the history lesson, we went snorkeling. After the murkey water yesterday, this was clear. I noted amazing fish, Pacer’s Angels, one of my favorites, everywhere along with butterflies, Meyeri etc, grunts, parrott fish, and assorted invertebrates including orange polyps and some soft leather corals. The most interesting part of dive found me suddenly in the midst of ten green pacific sea turtles. They are wonderful animals and watching them eagerly eat the alga from the rocks was fun, even when they were pushing me around.
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The dive lasted for about an hour and we returned to the ship for lunch and rest.

In the afternoon we landed on a green beach due to oivine in the sand. Alejandro had shown us the different sand. Olivine is mineral sand, as are sands created from sandstone. These get hot. Those created from organics, shells, bones etc. don’t get hot. Amazing.
The hike was a few hundred yards on a trail that followed the base of a small mountain, until we encountered a brackish lagoon of about 100 acres that housed about twenty Flamingos. There was some discussion of how the flamingos got to Floreanna, and whether the crustaceans they ate had to preceede them to the lagoon. This was because Alejandro had discussed the need for a favorable niche when a specie arrived on Galapagos.
Flamingos are beautiful, and Alejandro explained that they stand on one leg and tuck their long necks into their wings to take pressure off their hearts. He said we do the same thing when we shift feet etc.

From the lagoon, we walked to a cresent beach that was amazing. We saw evidence of turlle egg laying, trails, dug holes, and, we saw dozens of turtles floating like so many black mines in the shallow water just off the beach, waiting for dark to lay their eggs. Ajejandro sugggested that we take our shoes off but shuffle if we walked in the water due to sting rays in the very shallow water. I was at first dubious, but Alejandro kicked one up in the first ten feet, then we found theme to be everywhere, in the sand and in the shallow water. Looking over the bay, I noted a school of Eagle Rays frolicking on the surface, and other evidence of adundant sea life here, like birds skimming the surface and Pelicans diving.

We walked back to the olivine beach, (The white sand was organic and not hot, the oivine on the other side was mineral and hot. He was right.) And boarded the inflatables for the trip to the boat. By this time, we were adept and getting on and off an inflatable in the surf. There is a trick to it. 

I will describe Sta Cruz and the giant tortoises tomorrow.