On July 21, with about 65 games to go, Major League Baseball shows that competive balance. has been achieved, for now, anyway.”Competitve Balance ” is a concept that I was once asked to define. I did so by developing “Fifth Game Theory.” Read the post Here.
In essence, this points out that all teams should win two of five games and lose two of them as well. This leaves te fifth Game as the one that determines. Pennant winners and losers. There are 32.4 such game (round it up or down) so a team that wins all Fifth Games will finish 32 games ahead of a team that lose all of them. Seldom does a gap like this appear. Most of the time, team winning percentages are in the range of. 400 up to. 600. (The example shown before shows two teams with these percentages)
This year at this point, only the Rangers are under at .398 and only the A’s and Angels are over at. .622 and. .608.
Given that for the next 64 games, even the leaders will lose two of four, it will be wins in the Fifth Games that will determine the division winners. In the National League, each division has two teams tied for the lead. In the American League, LA is 1 1/2 games behind the A’s, NYY and Toronto are but three games behind Baltimore and Detoit is 5 1/2 games ahead of Cleveland. This has the look of a dramatic, multi-team, pennant race. Remember as well, that there are now two wild cards in each league, so predicting the outcome is impossible, at least for me today.Pay attention to the next two months and remember as we get close to September, that “Fall Baseball is War.” Here